Exante Data’s Post

We are happy to announce that Michael Trounce will be joining Exante Data as a Global Client Advisor! Mike has an impressive resume, including a Founder role at Trounceflow and research leadership at JP Morgan & Standard Chartered. Michael has a unique expert skill set, spanning capital flows, emerging markets, and data science. We are excited to have Mike help engage with a global audience, as we expand our client footprint further. Exante Data will continue to invest in our market-leading content while strengthening our service as we help the world's most sophisticated investors succeed.

Chinese capital flight: insights from 417 cases of illegal capital flight published by SAFE. It is well appreciated that Chinese capital flight exists and is huge in scale. But little is known about the “who” and “how” of how money escapes the country’s strict capital controls. So we created the data ourselves. Read more on this at: https://lnkd.in/gbucqGhX

Germany's monthly January trade balance (calendar and seasonally adjusted) increased by EUR4.2bn and reached EUR27.5bn last week - a record monthly nominal surplus. Read Exante Data Chief Economic Advisor Christopher Marsh's latest Substack to find out what caused this record surplus for Germany on Money: Inside and Out: https://lnkd.in/g3abacx4

Exante Data CEO and Founder Jens Nordvig joined Bloomberg News Friday morning to examine NVIDIA policy discussion, US economy growth, and artificial intelligence.

Exante Data Chief Economic Advisor Christopher Marsh's latest Substack looks at the rise in Chinese steel exports and the possibility that they may be supporting Russia through "transhipment" destinations. Read more about where these exports are headed on Exante Data's Substack: https://lnkd.in/g9ZiEGMd

To understand the last US CPI, it is worth looking at the entire distribution of changes. The light blue bars show the distribution of changes in January 2024. The dark blue bars is the distribution over time (moving with the video). And the red lines is the median distribution since 2012. We had a lot of categories (>20 out of 83 in total) which grew 1% or more in Jan 2024. More than double the normal, and more than in Jan 2023 (which was already elevated). The key point here is that the higher CPI was not just about one category. There were elevated figures across very many categories, and you cannot explain it away. Often one data point should be regarded as not important. But we had gotten used to core CPI at 0.2% for the previous 7 months, and hope for early cuts were predicated on that continuing. As such, Tuesday's figures were important, and the market is (correctly) taking note. We have commented on this on our client chat in the minutes after the release.

Last Thursday, Jens Nordvig and Wouter Schmit Jongbloed held an exclusive call for Exante Data clients on why Trump's potential second presidency may be very different than his first and its potential market implications. Clients who missed the call on Thursday can receive presentation materials from Kaye G. - kaye.gentle@exantedata.com. If you are not yet a client, also contact Kaye for more information and look forward to additional calls on this topic in coming months as we fine tune our strategy.

Every week we crunch thousands of alt data and capital flow series at Exante Data. This week, ETF flows in China are standing out. Notice the huge spike, which is obviously coinciding with government attempts to stabilize the equity markets. Something to watch - government intervention is at play...

Exante Data Advisor Tor Vollalokken recently wrote an op-ed for Dagens Næringsliv on the impact of foreign currency speculators determining the Norwegian interest rate and the impacts that it may have on the Krone. Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/gzgkDw8w

This week, there is a massive focus on the Quarterly Refunding Announcement in the US, but it's important to not forget about positioning. Yesterday's lower deficit numbers already moved markets, but it is not just the news that matters. In August, the flow and positioning picture was poor, and the QRA had a big bearish impact. Today, the positioning picture is different. US bond funds are actually underweight compared to benchmark according to Exante Data 's proprietary data. And this may help the price action on Monday (there is capacity to add...). Data is key to making investment decisions...